Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: AKA HERO vs Dortmund eSports (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stage

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5106dafa5bb03d9dd29846be4c563e0368ee766d08d9073c6c4fb4369370d752

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Dortmund eSportsof AKA HERO, Dortmund eSports
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,603 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Valorant
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x013d…0574backed AKA HERO	2c	2,625$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed AKA HERO	2c	2,625$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked AKA HERO	2c	2,625$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked AKA HERO	2c	2,625$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked AKA HERO	2c	2,625$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Dortmund eSports	35c	1,822$629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,193.29	285	41.1%117 W · 168 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked AKA HERO	2c	1,530$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	63	0%0 W · 63 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked AKA HERO	73c	1,520$1,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,103.08	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+11.0wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed AKA HERO	2c	1,150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed AKA HERO	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Dortmund eSports	42c	840.64$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.54	1,376	47.1%648 W · 728 L	+10.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed AKA HERO	27c	832.67$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.41	187	35.3%66 W · 121 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked AKA HERO	52c	621.37$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.41	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Dortmund eSports	57c	614.75$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.57	425	40.5%172 W · 253 L	-22.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33e9…895dbacked AKA HERO	49c	594.4$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.26	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Dortmund eSports	43c	501.84$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.03	1,490	46.6%695 W · 795 L	-16.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Dortmund eSports	60c	495.66$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.02	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5271…e12abacked AKA HERO	34c	409.52$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Dortmund eSports	63c	399.38$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.69	174	48.3%84 W · 90 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Dortmund eSports	62c	395.84$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.69	375	45.6%171 W · 204 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed AKA HERO	44c	357.62$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.27	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…316ebacked AKA HERO	26c	355.86$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed AKA HERO	7c	305$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	267	30.7%82 W · 185 L	-13.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Dortmund eSports	42c	297.68$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.84	347	39.8%138 W · 209 L	-13.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Dortmund eSports	27c	291.96$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.85	1,417	51.3%727 W · 690 L	+49.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked AKA HERO	58c	220.99$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.22	145	33.8%49 W · 96 L	-10.1wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dortmund eSports	17c	209.66$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.43	463	26.6%123 W · 340 L	-26.0wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce42…5cddbacked AKA HERO	48c	209.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.43	58	56.9%33 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed AKA HERO	31c	199.92$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.38	415	37.1%154 W · 261 L	-26.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed AKA HERO	34c	176.98$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.33	702	51.3%360 W · 342 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed AKA HERO	48c	173.04$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.48	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	39cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Dortmund eSports	49c	163.88$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.01	998	46%459 W · 539 L	-27.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked AKA HERO	62c	155.66$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.06	308	35.4%109 W · 199 L	-23.8wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed AKA HERO	17c	142.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	353	31.2%110 W · 243 L	-29.2wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Dortmund eSports	59c	136.95$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.15	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Dortmund eSports	10c	121.8$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.11	74	33.8%25 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Dortmund eSports	43c	117.57$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.55	157	54.1%85 W · 72 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked AKA HERO	35c	109.83$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.44	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked AKA HERO	16c	107.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	1,601	37.5%600 W · 1,001 L	-75.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Dortmund eSports	25c	107.4$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.15	575	17.7%102 W · 473 L	-71.7wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Dortmund eSports	17c	107.13$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.09	257	52.1%134 W · 123 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed Dortmund eSports	23c	97.08$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025c…8c60backed Dortmund eSports	70c	89.94$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.73	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	65cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2136…67eabacked Dortmund eSports	22c	85.63$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.53	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked AKA HERO	61c	78.05$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.29	147	29.9%44 W · 103 L	-19.2wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5523…b80ebacked Dortmund eSports	49c	70$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked AKA HERO	70c	69.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	349	54.7%191 W · 158 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Dortmund eSports	26c	68.8$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.91	664	38.1%253 W · 411 L	-31.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked AKA HERO	78c	66.71$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.23	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Dortmund eSports	24c	62.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.32	155	12.3%19 W · 136 L	-27.4wins	-0.18per pick	30cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Dortmund eSports	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	122	39.3%48 W · 74 L	-13.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed AKA HERO	36c	57.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	779	29.5%230 W · 549 L	-72.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-39%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed AKA HERO	39c	53.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	190	40%76 W · 114 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd5…84c4backed AKA HERO	35c	49.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.8wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed Dortmund eSports	37c	44.25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.73	225	42.7%96 W · 129 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Dortmund eSports	38c	43.7$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.23	160	41.9%67 W · 93 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Dortmund eSports	28c	41.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.71	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2361…254abacked Dortmund eSports	68c	36.39$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	69cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed AKA HERO	45c	36.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	636	52.7%335 W · 301 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5ab4…5c9cbacked AKA HERO	78c	33.55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.17	29	89.7%26 W · 3 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	78cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked AKA HERO	35c	31.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x257c…97e0backed AKA HERO	66c	29.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	58cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c67…e838backed Dortmund eSports	52c	28.72$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.65	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Dortmund eSports	40c	27.8$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.73	1,746	46.2%806 W · 940 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7c…60f0backed Dortmund eSports	40c	26.18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.81	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+134.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed AKA HERO	75c	24.1$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	95	61.1%58 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked AKA HERO	45c	22.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	311	53.1%165 W · 146 L	+15.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba37…dedcbacked Dortmund eSports	66c	22.26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.57	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Dortmund eSports	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked AKA HERO	76c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Valorant: AKA HERO vs Dortmund eSports (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stagethis page
Valorant: AKA HERO vs Dortmund eSports - Map 1 WinnerDortmund eSports won
Valorant: AKA HERO vs Dortmund eSports - Map 2 WinnerAKA HERO won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Valorant: AKA HERO vs Dortmund eSports (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stage

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event