Tennis · resolved market
Facundo Acosta vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x511b8b092523cc98b0f22f0eecfd0182b852069ab0fe9a597f0586d15972c7eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over 3.5 | 60c | 4,186$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.96 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 2,990$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.97 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 41c | 1,000$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.64 | 1,505 | 37.7%568 W · 937 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under 3.5 | 41c | 265.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 198.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…9dbabacked Over 3.5 | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under 3.5 | 41c | 164.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 419 | 41.1%172 W · 247 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…2356backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…c103backed Over 3.5 | 59c | 107.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Over 3.5 | 59c | 102.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 188 | 52.1%98 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under 3.5 | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…780ebacked Over 3.5 | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 83.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 41c | 67.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 3.5 | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,540 | 49.2%758 W · 782 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…c850backed Over 3.5 | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9df1backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 27.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Over 3.5 | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 318 | 53.5%170 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Facundo Acosta vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Acosta vs. Tien: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner TienLearner Tien won
- Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs TienTien won
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Acosta (+1.5)Acosta won
- Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Acosta (+2.5)Acosta won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.