Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ymer (-1.5) vs Roncadelli (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5120fae82309869b442448dbc4896abda274dc256d11a060cf6b0baf0c22e2e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ymerof Ymer, Roncadelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Roncadelli | 21c | 2,573$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.31 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a95…3a16backed Ymer | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.92 | 71 | 69%49 W · 22 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Ymer | 61c | 2,203$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.11 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49e0…9af1backed Ymer | 63c | 1,030$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.16 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Roncadelli | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Roncadelli | 39c | 578.77$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Roncadelli | 39c | 546.79$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Roncadelli | 37c | 470.93$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Roncadelli | 39c | 237.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Roncadelli | 39c | 207.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Roncadelli | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Roncadelli | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Roncadelli | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Roncadelli | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Roncadelli | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ymer | 63c | 123.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Roncadelli | 39c | 101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Ymer | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Roncadelli | 27c | 66.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ymer | 65c | 52.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Ymer | 62c | 38.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Roncadelli | 49c | 22.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Ymer | 71c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Ymer | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Ymer | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Ymer | 65c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ymer (-1.5) vs Roncadelli (+1.5)this page
- Franco Roncadelli vs. Elias Ymer: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias YmerElias Ymer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.