Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852cea9b5270b5a3d483fbea74ee5d7dbccad22e4585d695c9258bd17e68deeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elias Ymerof Franco Roncadelli, Elias Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Franco Roncadelli | 17c | 4,172$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.24 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Franco Roncadelli | 15c | 3,667$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Franco Roncadelli | 21c | 3,607$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.77 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 3,543$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.88 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Elias Ymer | 76c | 2,883$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.92 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 2,811$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.72 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Franco Roncadelli | 17c | 2,215$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.13 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Elias Ymer | 76c | 2,000$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.54 | 359 | 38.2%137 W · 222 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 1,876$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.69 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 1,794$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 1,562$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Franco Roncadelli | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…cea8backed Franco Roncadelli | 9c | 1,185$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 21c | 1,178$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.84 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 1,172$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 1,171$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 960.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Franco Roncadelli | 7c | 838.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 799.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 750.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 720$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 642.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 323 | 33.7%109 W · 214 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 492$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…bf08backed Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 462.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Franco Roncadelli | 25c | 345$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Franco Roncadelli | 19c | 343.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…ecefbacked Elias Ymer | 75c | 291.67$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Franco Roncadelli | 17c | 291.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 256.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 248$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…f6edbacked Franco Roncadelli | 14c | 226.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…4523backed Franco Roncadelli | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Elias Ymer | 77c | 191.71$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…7a30backed Elias Ymer | 77c | 154.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Franco Roncadelli | 17c | 151.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Franco Roncadelli | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Franco Roncadelli | 20c | 129.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…ba99backed Franco Roncadelli | 9c | 126.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Elias Ymer | 78c | 113.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Franco Roncadelli | 19c | 107.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…b550backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…e94abacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 80.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Franco Roncadelli | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Franco Roncadelli | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…8dc9backed Franco Roncadelli | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Elias Ymer | 80c | 73.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Elias Ymer | 76c | 31.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Elias Ymer | 76c | 28.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Elias Ymer | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Elias Ymer | 76c | 27.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked Elias Ymer | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Elias Ymer | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 461 | 55.3%255 W · 206 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Elias Ymer | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed Elias Ymer | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 103 | 95.1%98 W · 5 L | +25.4wins | +0.25per pick | 70cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Elias Ymer | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 391 | 59.1%231 W · 160 L | +28.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Elias Ymer | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…fac0backed Elias Ymer | 77c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymerthis page
- Franco Roncadelli vs. Elias Ymer: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Ymer (-1.5) vs Roncadelli (+1.5)Ymer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.