Golf · resolved market

Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5141be4ecf085c8db2c1a985fd24dcb4c648d8124219e8acee8506b5ed6244b6

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,208 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6239…c24fbacked Yes	23c	683.49$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.43	268	39.9%107 W · 161 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked No	74c	450$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.4	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+31%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa42c…5a6ebacked Yes	27c	310.67$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.67	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	11c	236$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.04	140	43.6%61 W · 79 L	+10.1wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	17c	230$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No	72c	148.5$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.16	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	16c	139$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes	22c	105$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a56…695bbacked No	69c	80$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No	65c	75$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.25	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55d…6984backed Yes	29c	69.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb167…de06backed Yes	42c	47.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No	76c	28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.72	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.20per pick	57cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed No	71c	22.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.44	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed No	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	37	73%27 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No	71c	17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.93	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event