Golf · resolved market

Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2035fdb86d2fdc96772e226b05d73a0b3af817434e6fe38749e8326d547095

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,044 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	62c	4,696$2,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,794.23	140	43.6%61 W · 79 L	+10.1wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No	38c	4,238$1,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,609.16	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	62c	2,759$1,721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,037.95	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	36c	2,574$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No	46c	885.25$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.68	69	58%40 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	67c	447.76$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.76	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No	15c	295.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+12.7wins	+0.55per pick	14cpaid	+387.1%equal weight	80+0.27 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	54c	202.81$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.48	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	69c	158$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.27	184	46.2%85 W · 99 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes	46c	138.06$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.73	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+3.5wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed No	57c	134.04$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.88	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Yes	56c	109.58$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.2	268	39.9%107 W · 161 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	40c	100.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	254	49.2%125 W · 129 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae1…6abdbacked Yes	28c	100$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+59.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	53c	87.98$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.59	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	64c	86.84$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.97	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515b…2d91backed Yes	58c	86.1$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.1	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cb…a4e6backed No	38c	79.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdc…3869backed Yes	70c	71.07$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.32	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+78%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb55d…6984backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	63c	58$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No	35c	53.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	70c	37.61$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.11	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-15%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked No	60c	36$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb167…de06backed Yes	70c	28.24$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.47	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb188…dc42backed Yes	65c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed No	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	37	73%27 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x050a…79bcbacked Yes	54c	19.37$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.91	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc3…b551backed Yes	70c	17.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event