MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5151053d6a58581aeaa81bcb264fbe8beafaa34be298f44e3d392aff2704b5be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Twins, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Guardians | 56c | 6,222$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.28 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 43c | 3,972$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.78 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Twins | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Twins | 43c | 1,826$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.34 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 57c | 1,433$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.86 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Twins | 45c | 1,076$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.05 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 55c | 795.45$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Guardians | 55c | 712$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.4 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 55c | 621.68$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.76 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 44c | 520.67$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians | 54c | 508.95$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.56 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Twins | 46c | 450$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.87 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Twins | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Twins | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 46c | 288.87$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Twins | 44c | 288.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Guardians | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Guardians | 55c | 225$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Guardians | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 45c | 215$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Guardians | 58c | 199.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Twins | 49c | 197.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 182 | 36.3%66 W · 116 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Twins | 42c | 180.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Twins | 44c | 152.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Guardians | 55c | 149.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Guardians | 59c | 119.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Twins | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Twins | 46c | 108.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Guardians | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Guardians | 57c | 98.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Twins | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Guardians | 59c | 55.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Twins | 46c | 49.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Twins | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Guardians | 55c | 43.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Guardians | 59c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Guardians | 55c | 18.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Guardians | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Guardians | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.