Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Liudmila Samsonova vs Marketa Vondrousova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a8ea5be029c7a367df7cde1dc3195a0102ae6d6256feff13ac897ee6ab7d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vondrousovaof Samsonova, Vondrousova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Vondrousova | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.98 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vondrousova | 71c | 3,806$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vondrousova | 78c | 3,440$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.2 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Samsonova | 38c | 3,160$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.7 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Samsonova | 31c | 2,956$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.08 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vondrousova | 60c | 2,768$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.03 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Samsonova | 37c | 2,110$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…a1f2backed Samsonova | 48c | 2,096$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 147 | 66.7%98 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Samsonova | 44c | 1,855$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.2 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Vondrousova | 65c | 1,836$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.18 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…1e6cbacked Samsonova | 43c | 1,151$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Samsonova | 47c | 898$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.06 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Samsonova | 25c | 757$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Samsonova | 37c | 634.17$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Vondrousova | 63c | 507.68$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.53 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Samsonova | 42c | 468$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed Samsonova | 39c | 409.28$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Samsonova | 25c | 355.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Samsonova | 26c | 346.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Samsonova | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…03f1backed Samsonova | 27c | 340.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 99 | 16.2%16 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Vondrousova | 63c | 315.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Samsonova | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Samsonova | 19c | 299.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Samsonova | 34c | 279.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Samsonova | 44c | 256.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Samsonova | 23c | 223.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Samsonova | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Vondrousova | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Samsonova | 22c | 184.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Samsonova | 39c | 182.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Samsonova | 44c | 177.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Vondrousova | 55c | 176.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Samsonova | 22c | 150.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Vondrousova | 76c | 148.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Samsonova | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Vondrousova | 65c | 134$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Samsonova | 16c | 126.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Samsonova | 22c | 122.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Samsonova | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Samsonova | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Samsonova | 14c | 115.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Samsonova | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Samsonova | 29c | 106.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Vondrousova | 68c | 104.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Samsonova | 35c | 101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Samsonova | 46c | 99.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vondrousova | 63c | 97.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Samsonova | 42c | 95.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Vondrousova | 54c | 80.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Samsonova | 37c | 78.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Vondrousova | 72c | 77.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Samsonova | 44c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Samsonova | 33c | 75.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…526fbacked Vondrousova | 70c | 72.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vondrousova | 76c | 70.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Samsonova | 37c | 67.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Vondrousova | 62c | 63.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Samsonova | 35c | 56.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Vondrousova | 69c | 48.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Samsonova | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Vondrousova | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Samsonova | 34c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Vondrousova | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Vondrousova | 59c | 37.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Samsonova | 47c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb434…2b36backed Vondrousova | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Vondrousova | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…e73dbacked Vondrousova | 76c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Vondrousova | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Vondrousova | 71c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Samsonova | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Samsonova | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Vondrousova | 65c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Liudmila Samsonova vs Marketa Vondrousovathis page
- Samsonova vs. Vondrousova: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Samsonova vs. Vondrousova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Samsonova vs. Vondrousova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Samsonova vs. Vondrousova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs VondrousovaVondrousova won
- Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Vondrousova (+1.5)Vondrousova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.