Earnings · resolved market
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c5662970416887eade44246ebb79720703824e70f2b2808530e1cd5e1a4fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 76c | 1,214$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.39 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Yes | 27c | 671.36$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 69c | 573.35$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 433.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 59c | 251.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 51c | 208$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…ec5abacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 34c | 176.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed No | 71c | 170.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 17c | 167.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 157.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 33c | 151.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 149.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 25c | 139.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 112.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad5…583ebacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1b4fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes | 36c | 54.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Yes | 33c | 51.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…2ea5backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 41.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 40.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…08a4backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 31c | 33.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 32.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…61e3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 52c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked No | 68c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.