NHL · resolved market
NHL Playoffs: Lightning vs. Panthers (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c832a222f9c691baa798316b1cb151279056231b5602818e3e51d43427c243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Lightning, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Lightning | 50c | 15,361$7,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,667.06 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Panthers | 53c | 11,577$6,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,496.98 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Panthers | 50c | 10,699$5,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,348.08 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Lightning | 50c | 9,800$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.97 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Lightning | 49c | 7,990$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915.02 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Panthers | 51c | 7,552$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,705.58 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Panthers | 53c | 4,470$2,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.93 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Panthers | 50c | 3,990$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning | 50c | 3,756$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.58 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 669 | 51%341 W · 328 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 244 | 57.4%140 W · 104 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…882dbacked Lightning | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Panthers | 64c | 1,394$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.4 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.29 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…7cd3backed Panthers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Lightning | 48c | 760.02$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.81 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning | 18c | 730$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Panthers | 52c | 603.52$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.49 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Lightning | 48c | 534.77$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 29c | 507.02$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Panthers | 51c | 399.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Lightning | 49c | 394$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lightning | 39c | 315$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Lightning | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…581abacked Panthers | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning | 20c | 235.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Lightning | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Lightning | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Lightning | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Panthers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…9a22backed Panthers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…ba9abacked Panthers | 52c | 192.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…9b99backed Lightning | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…9803backed Lightning | 51c | 151.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Panthers | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Lightning | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Panthers | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Lightning | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Panthers | 50c | 97.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…7c3fbacked Lightning | 16c | 94.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Panthers | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Panthers | 50c | 70.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cd…f9f0backed Lightning | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Panthers | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…77edbacked Lightning | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Panthers | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Panthers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Panthers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…8368backed Lightning | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…235fbacked Lightning | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…8affbacked Panthers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lightning | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Lightning | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…a499backed Panthers | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Lightning | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.