CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51cfeff95dd8e65241878c7e00cdd08ecdc1e6f8578a8ffb69a0ba0d75dadaa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, BC.Game Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Ursa | 48c | 1,765$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.27 | 92 | 64.1%59 W · 33 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed BC.Game Esports | 47c | 778$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.31 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed BC.Game Esports | 53c | 647$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.11 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…942cbacked Ursa | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked BC.Game Esports | 65c | 397$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.05 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…6b53backed BC.Game Esports | 50c | 271.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…5f54backed BC.Game Esports | 41c | 253.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Ursa | 40c | 222$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.64 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ursa | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed BC.Game Esports | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed BC.Game Esports | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 52c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Ursa | 52c | 107.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked BC.Game Esports | 41c | 104.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 204 | 33.8%69 W · 135 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…b7d3backed BC.Game Esports | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…a742backed Ursa | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…70debacked BC.Game Esports | 47c | 97.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Ursa | 63c | 74.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…fe0ebacked Ursa | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed BC.Game Esports | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Ursa | 28c | 50.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked BC.Game Esports | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked BC.Game Esports | 42c | 46.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed BC.Game Esports | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…64c1backed BC.Game Esports | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…945abacked BC.Game Esports | 72c | 30.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…ff61backed BC.Game Esports | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Ursa | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…3b25backed BC.Game Esports | 73c | 13.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…1bb0backed BC.Game Esports | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier PlayoffsUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.