Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lithuania vs. Israel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51ed049db9e93e22212b6a441212dd39699137ca8eb525f7f82be9183ccbfff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 38c | 1,433$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.78 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Yes | 66c | 441.12$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 27c | 374.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 344.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.77 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 32c | 236.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed No | 67c | 150.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Yes | 71c | 141.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed No | 73c | 141.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 31c | 127.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked No | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 106.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…8985backed Yes | 70c | 39.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 68c | 34.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…4dfbbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania vs. Israel end in a draw?this page
- Will Israel win on 2025-11-13?No won
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.