Fifa International · resolved market
Will Israel win on 2025-11-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc82455eec7b1c7917a151069cc6be2c5277168d24b313c739ad094e8877c0041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd735…968ebacked Yes | 24c | 4,165$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 50c | 1,510$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed No | 40c | 1,257$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.8 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 1,249$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.26 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 57c | 1,197$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.5 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 1,194$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.45 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 913.59$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.01 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 26c | 744.73$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Yes | 38c | 681.78$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 54c | 580$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 45c | 556.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked Yes | 20c | 543$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 35c | 393.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 44c | 376.4$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.59 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 58c | 343.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 70c | 247.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 60c | 229.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 61c | 116.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed Yes | 38c | 109.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 42c | 95.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…5c3fbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…40b5backed Yes | 63c | 75.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 19c | 72.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…e2b1backed Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…8985backed Yes | 23c | 63.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…913dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…1356backed Yes | 60c | 44.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Yes | 61c | 42.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 39c | 42.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 38c | 36.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 64c | 26.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…cd00backed Yes | 60c | 21.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645c…db2bbacked Yes | 59c | 19.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9088…351ebacked No | 73c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 64c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel win on 2025-11-13?this page
- Will Lithuania vs. Israel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.