NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523760cbeb15f7b16e1832e3b665aa4b8c04519597f2bed38fd4b2933fe0fb80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Flames | 57c | 3,491$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.64 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…cec6backed Avalanche | 43c | 1,695$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Avalanche | 43c | 1,685$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.37 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Flames | 8c | 612.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 69c | 503.49$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Flames | 58c | 246.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Flames | 58c | 203.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Flames | 39c | 176.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Avalanche | 42c | 169.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Avalanche | 43c | 159.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Avalanche | 77c | 147.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Avalanche | 41c | 144.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Flames | 58c | 121.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flames | 57c | 113.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Avalanche | 43c | 91.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Avalanche | 43c | 86.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Flames | 25c | 75.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Flames | 58c | 66.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Flames | 58c | 59.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Flames | 56c | 58.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Flames | 59c | 58.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Avalanche | 43c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Avalanche | 42c | 38.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Flames | 61c | 24.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Avalanche | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Flames | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Flames | 57c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)this page
- Flames vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.