NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfee2628664ab988ed14bfe6b2f2ed7a650e599a6878764b790de2b47abbda301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.95 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 3,535$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 55c | 3,124$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.39 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 45c | 2,067$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.83 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 55c | 1,263$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.53 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 56c | 1,152$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.15 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 999.42$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.68 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 722.41$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 48c | 541.98$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.31 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 460.87$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 450.58$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 53c | 238.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 197.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 176.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 57c | 161.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 46c | 159$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 66c | 152.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 55c | 150.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 133.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 55c | 133.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 55c | 133.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 228 | 53.9%123 W · 105 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 55c | 133.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 55c | 133.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 44c | 129.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 45c | 126.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Over | 45c | 119$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 152 | 57.9%88 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 54c | 85.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 53c | 75.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 56c | 71.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 45c | 70.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 53c | 70.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 63.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 45c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Under | 23c | 53.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…fcd8backed Under | 55c | 53.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Under | 34c | 49.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 47c | 45.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Over | 46c | 36.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…4565backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 33.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 55c | 26.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…a088backed Under | 55c | 21.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Under | 55c | 18.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.