NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf27c49d88ab5233fbf48b076773c1a15967bae54c4a1e9263ce078deef883e0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Avalanche | 58c | 789.2$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.46 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flames | 42c | 682.64$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.82 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Flames | 43c | 626.91$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.57 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…de36backed Avalanche | 57c | 518.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Flames | 43c | 479.15$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Flames | 43c | 408.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Avalanche | 57c | 381.69$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.13 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flames | 43c | 265.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 41c | 212.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Flames | 43c | 183.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Avalanche | 58c | 170.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Flames | 42c | 145.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche | 57c | 121.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Avalanche | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Flames | 44c | 98.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flames | 42c | 95.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Avalanche | 59c | 83.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Flames | 43c | 75.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Avalanche | 58c | 73.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Avalanche | 62c | 69.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Flames | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Flames | 41c | 65.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 56c | 57.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Flames | 43c | 56.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Flames | 42c | 54.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche | 57c | 52.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Avalanche | 59c | 50.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Flames | 42c | 45.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Avalanche | 57c | 43.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flames | 44c | 42.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…dbe5backed Avalanche | 59c | 41.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…7cbabacked Avalanche | 57c | 38.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…155bbacked Avalanche | 56c | 35.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Avalanche | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Avalanche | 57c | 29.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Avalanche | 57c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche | 58c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Avalanche | 57c | 22.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Avalanche | 56c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…d081backed Avalanche | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe4…fa32backed Avalanche | 56c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Avalanche | 58c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.