Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5259b2e3773a5f25b74c1828197bc68cd9f23bac93b241740a88ac989bc5c1f5

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $91,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,327 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No	79c	10,243$8,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120.63	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes	21c	9,693$2,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,049.67	359	42.9%154 W · 205 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	15c	5,679$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.55	173	38.2%66 W · 107 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes	15c	4,578$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705.91	79	24.1%19 W · 60 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…5104backed Yes	29c	3,488$1,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,019.05	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes	15c	3,038$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.71	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No	78c	1,819$1,412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.76	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc46b…aaa0backed Yes	19c	1,737$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Yes	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	146	20.5%30 W · 116 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	6c	1,133$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.98	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes	18c	1,100$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	350	36.3%127 W · 223 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Yes	17c	1,065$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.23	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes	9c	1,044$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.55	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No	70c	880.58$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.9	450	39.6%178 W · 272 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Yes	37c	740.54$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c41…245cbacked Yes	15c	665.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.83	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Yes	35c	651.32$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	323	56%181 W · 142 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x866a…de80backed Yes	16c	602.75$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.44	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes	24c	575.27$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.56	163	41.1%67 W · 96 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…79a5backed Yes	40c	553.74$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No	76c	432.92$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.27	459	47.7%219 W · 240 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Yes	23c	430.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Yes	16c	412.13$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Yes	38c	407.89$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	116	31.9%37 W · 79 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No	80c	404.24$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.08	287	54.7%157 W · 130 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9316…541ebacked Yes	16c	365.69$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Yes	33c	360.93$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes	15c	299.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	549	17.9%98 W · 451 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c67…910abacked Yes	30c	286.02$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d8…ab9abacked Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	91	40.7%37 W · 54 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…849ebacked Yes	37c	231.22$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Yes	17c	205.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-4.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0afb…9a96backed Yes	15c	201.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…4a6fbacked Yes	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf829…5ee1backed Yes	28c	190.95$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Yes	17c	180$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes	17c	180$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.34	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes	20c	177.61$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.37	161	16.8%27 W · 134 L	-16.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed Yes	6c	169.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	74	43.2%32 W · 42 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Yes	16c	166.13$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Yes	16c	163.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes	41c	153.78$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.05	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-6.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes	15c	149.06$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43ba…6f8abacked Yes	16c	125.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x747b…720dbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeea0…fec5backed Yes	18c	123.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c55…e0a2backed Yes	15c	116$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc542…e47cbacked Yes	15c	112$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a1…2e55backed Yes	39c	111.62$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	21c	101.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes	38c	99.08$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	551	53%292 W · 259 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44cb…feb2backed Yes	39c	98.05$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.24	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2270…ca8cbacked Yes	41c	98.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc7…9902backed Yes	15c	97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	27c	93.09$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe778…12ffbacked Yes	15c	91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9303…ab1ebacked Yes	16c	89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49f…accabacked Yes	15c	85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46a…8626backed Yes	19c	83.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b9…1074backed Yes	15c	83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x400e…1a0dbacked Yes	15c	83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes	32c	78.84$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	277	45.1%125 W · 152 L	-19.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5aea…eff2backed Yes	19c	73.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0071…a0f7backed Yes	46c	73.52$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.97	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Yes	16c	63.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	101	53.5%54 W · 47 L	+8.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5b0…2533backed Yes	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…9a30backed Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	281	27.8%78 W · 203 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…f4c5backed Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae17…e532backed Yes	29c	52.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e86…6edbbacked Yes	29c	51.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x845c…bd64backed Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb4…db25backed Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed No	73c	50.12$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.53	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…f48ebacked Yes	38c	39.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Yes	40c	35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	127	44.1%56 W · 71 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b14…5301backed Yes	31c	32.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes	37c	30.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…d987backed Yes	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x195f…8397backed No	70c	28.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.74	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…4867backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31?this page
Will Netherlands vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Yes won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event