MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x525c3952866f75f3f0650e331b0f5f8f1fee9c5626fc314fe47f7b82095f7273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 53c | 10,247$5,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,466.83 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 47c | 6,977$3,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.69 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 6,803$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,519.68 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Over | 48c | 4,905$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.41 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Over | 49c | 2,659$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.95 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 2,372$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.73 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,573$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.87 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 56c | 1,158$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.84 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,062$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.77 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 977.76$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 880$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 42c | 832.72$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.74 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Over | 46c | 626.84$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.49 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 53c | 549.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 52c | 481.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 431.61$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.75 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 46c | 328.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.65 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 291.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Under | 53c | 240.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 212.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 181.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Under | 55c | 177.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd86…b5dbbacked Over | 47c | 172.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 159.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 68c | 158$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…3d00backed Over | 75c | 131.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 42c | 130.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 31c | 106.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 47c | 105.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 63c | 76.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 47c | 73.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 46c | 71.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 47c | 62.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Under | 52c | 60.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 37c | 58.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 57.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 26c | 53.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 52.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…52e7backed Over | 47c | 46.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Over | 67c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 54c | 41.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 48c | 41.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 38.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 53c | 32.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 32.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 29.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 54c | 29.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Under | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 47c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 25.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Under | 51c | 24.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 54c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 19.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 58c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-6.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.