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Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yunnan Yukun FCof Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC, Yunnan Yukun FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,642 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC21c2,617$550 inLost-$549.792,58540%1,035 W · 1,550 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC22c2,205$478 inLost-$478.116,02846.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L+50.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yunnan Yukun FC78c2,013$1,570 inWon+$442.8741850.5%211 W · 207 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Yunnan Yukun FC80c1,600$1,274 inWon+$3263773%27 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yunnan Yukun FC78c1,208$942 inWon+$265.8240649.8%202 W · 204 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Yunnan Yukun FC79c186.02$147 inWon+$38.6835751%182 W · 175 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yunnan Yukun FC76c112.42$85 inWon+$26.981,26650.2%635 W · 631 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC23c111.21$26 inLost-$25.5219261.5%118 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC23c92.75$21 inLost-$21.0713346.6%62 W · 71 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yunnan Yukun FC77c81.49$63 inWon+$18.622,03654.2%1,104 W · 932 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC23c63.45$15 inLost-$14.6624459.8%146 W · 98 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b1aebacked Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC21c60$13 inLost-$12.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Yunnan Yukun FC79c51.71$41 inWon+$10.867949.4%39 W · 40 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+33.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8ca…298dbacked Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC22c46.82$10 inLost-$10.330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yunnan Yukun FC77c43.47$34 inWon+$9.9577342.6%329 W · 444 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Yunnan Yukun FC78c20$16 inWon+$4.57667.1%51 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.