Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mai Vang advance from the CA-07 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a1f17e0ff3f91e7e1454943d095aa713c93525e60c12b73ca87e0f03a9a1a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 77c | 693$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbd…29d8backed No | 51c | 313.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 63c | 170$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 25c | 163.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed No | 26c | 116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 20c | 97.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 42c | 41.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 66c | 28.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…6590backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mai Vang advance from the CA-07 primary election?this page
- Will Doris Matsui advance from the CA-07 primary election?Yes won
- Will Enayat Nazhat advance from the CA-07 primary election?No won
- Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election?No won
- Will Robert Morin advance from the CA-07 primary election?No won
- Will Zachariah Wooden advance from the CA-07 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.