NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Colts
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52c3ce109fbe7a0d20a0b501405757f614c14e2a23d64f30ab4d8b85445ccb11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bc6…3241backed Colts | 70c | 11,353$7,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Packers | 30c | 6,127$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,288.83 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Packers | 29c | 1,822$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.41 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Packers | 43c | 1,214$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.18 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…25b0backed Packers | 64c | 654.08$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Packers | 29c | 649.92$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.44 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Packers | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Packers | 33c | 503.18$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.18 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Colts | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Colts | 41c | 499.94$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.33 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Packers | 56c | 470.13$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.86 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Colts | 4c | 432.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Packers | 36c | 422.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.22 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Colts | 57c | 416.56$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Packers | 41c | 327.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Packers | 32c | 308.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.04 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Packers | 30c | 306.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.48 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Packers | 33c | 302.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colts | 69c | 301.18$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.35 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Colts | 67c | 261$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Packers | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Packers | 13c | 238.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Packers | 31c | 225.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.6 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Colts | 64c | 224.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Packers | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Colts | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Packers | 41c | 193.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.66 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Packers | 29c | 172$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Colts | 66c | 142.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Colts | 40c | 124.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Packers | 31c | 116.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…54bcbacked Colts | 69c | 109.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Packers | 30c | 100.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Colts | 62c | 100.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Packers | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Packers | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…afc7backed Packers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 26c | 98.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…db9dbacked Packers | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Colts | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Colts | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Packers | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Packers | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…b00bbacked Packers | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Colts | 61c | 53.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…2f9dbacked Packers | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3533…40fdbacked Colts | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Packers | 33c | 40.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Packers | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Packers | 53c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Colts | 45c | 37.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Colts | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Colts | 70c | 14.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.