Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f0edbebfad4d559ced552844238ac414c666c7efb5289ce02d0fc707d53304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 71c | 947.58$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.21 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 494.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 325.16$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 53c | 289$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.12 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 24c | 161.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 51c | 105.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 45c | 101.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed Under | 24c | 85.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Under | 24c | 85.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 71.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 54c | 44.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 33.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 52c | 33.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 46c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Charlotte FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Charlotte FC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Charlotte FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.