Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open: Arthur Fils vs Darwin Blanch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x532a85b4a4f29bcb2959ab5a37d22d19982cda8cad62f009cd44c646fbb3f1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arthur Filsof Arthur Fils, Darwin Blanch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,828 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 13,705$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.78 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Darwin Blanch | 15c | 11,901$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.14 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Darwin Blanch | 5c | 11,833$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.78 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Darwin Blanch | 12c | 7,440$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.81 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Darwin Blanch | 11c | 4,995$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 199 | 38.2%76 W · 123 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 4,189$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.19 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Darwin Blanch | 13c | 3,582$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.13 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Darwin Blanch | 15c | 2,969$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.63 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Darwin Blanch | 6c | 2,762$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Darwin Blanch | 14c | 2,513$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Darwin Blanch | 5c | 2,444$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Darwin Blanch | 13c | 2,186$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.84 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Darwin Blanch | 6c | 2,020$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Darwin Blanch | 13c | 1,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Darwin Blanch | 6c | 1,326$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Darwin Blanch | 7c | 1,286$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 1,261$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Darwin Blanch | 16c | 850$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…40b1backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 724.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Darwin Blanch | 16c | 647.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Darwin Blanch | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Darwin Blanch | 12c | 581.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Darwin Blanch | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Darwin Blanch | 12c | 368.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 343.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Darwin Blanch | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Darwin Blanch | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 268.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Darwin Blanch | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Darwin Blanch | 10c | 241.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…e260backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 187.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Darwin Blanch | 13c | 104.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 100.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…4609backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Darwin Blanch | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Darwin Blanch | 17c | 95.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Darwin Blanch | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open: Arthur Fils vs Darwin Blanchthis page
- Arthur Fils vs. Darwin Blanch: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Fils vs. Blanch: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Blanch (+1.5)Fils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.