Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x532d1299a0c21249ad84bc227d98bcb9cc797bfa41643ea887f55d535b587383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Mensik, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Zhang | 54c | 758.7$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.7 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Mensik | 45c | 739.65$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.81 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…ba33backed Zhang | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mensik | 44c | 303.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fd…abf9backed Mensik | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Mensik | 46c | 249.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zhang | 49c | 233.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Mensik | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Mensik | 50c | 199.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 499 | 43.1%215 W · 284 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Zhang | 56c | 188.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 307 | 44.6%137 W · 170 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Mensik | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Zhang | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Zhang | 57c | 105.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Zhang | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zhang | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Mensik | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mensik | 43c | 61.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Zhang | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Zhang | 51c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Zhang | 57c | 57.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…bd29backed Mensik | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…39b1backed Mensik | 51c | 46.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Zhang | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Zhang | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Zhang | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Zhang | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Mensik | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Zhang | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Zhang | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)this page
- Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Zhizhen ZhangMensik won
- Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs ZhangMensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.