Movies · resolved market
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5340027e8302f8ac4d2062ef7699f06c9ea8e419d3034e7f34612d7834496a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 14c | 3,176$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.12 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 4c | 2,117$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes | 3c | 951.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…5dedbacked Yes | 12c | 825.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 10c | 559.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.64 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…0516backed Yes | 15c | 467.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…d8fbbacked Yes | 18c | 460.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 21c | 416$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 410.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 24c | 399.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…fb74backed Yes | 16c | 390.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 332$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 11c | 203.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…3c8ebacked Yes | 20c | 183.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 20c | 160.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…1e0fbacked Yes | 23c | 131.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9097…b5d1backed No | 77c | 131.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 57c | 120.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 79c | 112.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 106.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 29c | 104.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…14a5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…49afbacked Yes | 21c | 95.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 94.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 85.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…3195backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fe…4db6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 16c | 70.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 21c | 54.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 25c | 45.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 70c | 40.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…fa71backed Yes | 42c | 35.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…1c02backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Anaconda" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "Minions: The Rise of Gru" be the top global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.