Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. NEC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x534971df52d8bd3b18839d3decee3b44644e053fa5f7ad8070c5d0e4ba645874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Under | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 704.01$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.09 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 43c | 688.7$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.14 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Over | 66c | 666$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 34c | 588$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 72c | 399.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 337.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 66c | 326.43$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 42c | 300.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Under | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 135 | 73.3%99 W · 36 L | +24.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…73dbbacked Under | 35c | 285.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 35c | 241.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 178.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 35c | 153.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 36c | 153$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 34c | 118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 114.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 70c | 103.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 65c | 97.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 57c | 87.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 63c | 80.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 18c | 66.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 61c | 56.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 62c | 56.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…93a7backed Under | 36c | 55.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 26c | 40.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 65c | 31.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. NEC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. NEC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Groningen vs. NEC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. NEC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NEC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)NEC won
- Spread: NEC (-1.5)FC Groningen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.