Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x534bade733be7616a046df7a717ebe12cdf3291ce450af14d7fcd6a0d9860d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, Kansas Jayhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 10,082$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,951.52 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 46c | 3,406$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.9 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Arizona Wildcats | 53c | 2,941$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.32 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 865.85$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.02 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 550.91$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.52 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Arizona Wildcats | 55c | 540.73$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.33 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…03a9backed Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 396.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas Jayhawks | 45c | 378.94$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 365.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 280.48$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.22 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Wildcats | 77c | 234.01$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas Jayhawks | 48c | 205.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…9eccbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 202.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 183.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kansas Jayhawks | 46c | 112.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Kansas Jayhawks | 46c | 107.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…7873backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 101.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 86.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 73.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 66.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 62.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 59.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 58.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kansas Jayhawks | 21c | 49.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 42.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…188cbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 40.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 37.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…3c57backed Kansas Jayhawks | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Kansas Jayhawks | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-9.5)this page
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 149.5Under won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 150.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-10.5)Arizona Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.