NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x534bcfa8d840de85220ea2ae0e52f33e425ff3582a48a9ceccbfccf7967d7818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc120…eab2backed Over | 45c | 4,211$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…a8b2backed Under | 55c | 2,467$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,105$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…b69cbacked Under | 56c | 1,921$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 55c | 1,636$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.36 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…cc1fbacked Under | 56c | 1,450$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2aa9backed Under | 55c | 1,411$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…8a54backed Over | 44c | 1,012$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…ed77backed Over | 44c | 821$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 650$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…7b46backed Over | 44c | 613$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…7fffbacked Over | 44c | 520$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…930abacked Over | 44c | 317$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…50d5backed Under | 55c | 229$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 46c | 197.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 126$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…233dbacked Under | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…de87backed Over | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Over | 45c | 63.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…d998backed Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.