NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691d4ee6390ad6013e6e35d4003c3f033c724a7674b5d5a01ef73554c0a73beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8938…f7a9backed Under | 53c | 2,470$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…1868backed Over | 48c | 2,289$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…33c0backed Under | 52c | 1,823$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…6353backed Over | 47c | 1,765$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…654abacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…6874backed Over | 49c | 986$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…870bbacked Over | 49c | 890$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…bdb5backed Under | 51c | 876$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…a2e9backed Over | 47c | 849$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…2327backed Over | 47c | 609$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…2934backed Over | 47c | 460$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 405$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.85 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…c081backed Under | 53c | 365$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 355$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…1a9bbacked Under | 52c | 281$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Under | 54c | 279.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…ab06backed Under | 53c | 278$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa419…a29bbacked Under | 53c | 265$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…3919backed Under | 53c | 219$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 202.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Under | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…ee41backed Under | 53c | 166$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 145.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 46c | 136.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Under | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 108$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…f3dbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…182fbacked Over | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…742abacked Over | 49c | 59.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Under | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.