NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81191b9607e2c1e6824ee33bacbdcfa3451c4b8dc15343bc86f30b69a9b157d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Raptors | 51c | 33,679$17,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,502.71 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 49c | 30,781$15,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,142.45 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…cb02backed Grizzlies | 50c | 23,654$11,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,826.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Raptors | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 10,046$5,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,283.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,429.94 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.2 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Raptors | 47c | 4,375$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.26 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Raptors | 47c | 1,851$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.06 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…eb57backed Raptors | 48c | 1,031$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…bdb5backed Raptors | 50c | 770$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…6874backed Grizzlies | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…870bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 652$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…654abacked Raptors | 50c | 632$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…7c35backed Grizzlies | 52c | 601$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Raptors | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Raptors | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Raptors | 45c | 571.11$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.11 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 49c | 448$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…e49fbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 430$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Grizzlies | 53c | 397.01$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 48c | 312$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 45c | 181$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Raptors | 49c | 149.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Raptors | 48c | 127.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Raptors | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raptors | 51c | 103.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Raptors | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Grizzlies | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Raptors | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Raptors | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Raptors | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Raptors | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Raptors | 47c | 47.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Raptors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors | 43c | 34.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Raptors | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Raptors | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Raptors | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Grizzlies | 50c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Grizzlies | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.