NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x954d3652f212610759ae93b9085f96cdd0990b5b2d6d74a655f3f41b6c77d920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc46…8a54backed Grizzlies | 54c | 2,837$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Raptors | 46c | 2,400$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…1868backed Grizzlies | 54c | 2,019$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2aa9backed Grizzlies | 55c | 1,882$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…ed77backed Raptors | 46c | 1,577$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…930abacked Grizzlies | 54c | 1,414$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…eab2backed Raptors | 45c | 1,219$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 863.8$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…cc1fbacked Raptors | 46c | 677$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…de87backed Raptors | 46c | 671$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Raptors | 44c | 638.49$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.71 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Grizzlies | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…b69cbacked Raptors | 46c | 589$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…7fffbacked Raptors | 46c | 525$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…a8b2backed Raptors | 45c | 488$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raptors | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 45c | 333$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…7b46backed Raptors | 46c | 212$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…33c0backed Grizzlies | 54c | 203$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raptors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…1a9bbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 178$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…50d5backed Raptors | 45c | 121$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Grizzlies | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…233dbacked Raptors | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Grizzlies | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.