NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa823441321ee1581f2d786822042577c8cbb9803c18e79b9215d080d68d4e289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Under | 50c | 165,330$82,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,586.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 50c | 164,372$82,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,260.61 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,787$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 49c | 1,736$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.39 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Over | 22c | 1,040$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 51c | 630$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 75c | 390$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 375$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 24c | 288.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 188.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Under | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Under | 49c | 82.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…9cdfbacked Over | 51c | 44.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.