Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: BYU Cougars (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5365f6a854d4d74b2c60b1fea5ad662c152965412eb8b9179b83081fda54e072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYU Cougarsof BYU Cougars, Baylor Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Baylor Bears | 15c | 35,367$5,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,177.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +264.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Baylor Bears | 56c | 2,587$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.77 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked BYU Cougars | 74c | 2,356$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.56 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked BYU Cougars | 44c | 2,043$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed BYU Cougars | 72c | 1,545$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.9 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed BYU Cougars | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Baylor Bears | 54c | 1,045$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.39 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed BYU Cougars | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BYU Cougars | 74c | 987.65$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.79 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked BYU Cougars | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Baylor Bears | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Baylor Bears | 28c | 357.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked BYU Cougars | 78c | 250$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…b601backed BYU Cougars | 45c | 113.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fb…b328backed Baylor Bears | 21c | 63.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Baylor Bears | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed BYU Cougars | 80c | 54.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed BYU Cougars | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Baylor Bears | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Baylor Bears | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked BYU Cougars | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Baylor Bears | 56c | 25.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked BYU Cougars | 44c | 23.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed BYU Cougars | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked BYU Cougars | 80c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BYU Cougars (-4.5)this page
- BYU Cougars vs. Baylor BearsBYU Cougars won
- BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 158.5Over won
- BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 160.5Over won
- Spread: BYU Cougars (-2.5)BYU Cougars won
- Spread: BYU Cougars (-3.5)BYU Cougars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.