Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5387fb2e3c6c13ca80aeb2e71178441a8199e580ec2ce7e9175f51641ea1152e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,728 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 63c | 716.11$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.92 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 17c | 469.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 24c | 370$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.3 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 313.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 310.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 269$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 70c | 240.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 239.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 191.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 158.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 80c | 141.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 36c | 139.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 68c | 120.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…5838backed Yes | 76c | 112.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 27c | 110.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 110.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 107.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 106.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 99.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 23c | 99.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 90.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 55c | 90.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 27c | 89.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 77c | 88.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 71.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 61.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 59.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 28c | 54.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 35c | 48.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 48c | 45.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 25c | 44.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 37c | 43.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 42.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 69c | 41.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 41.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 48c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 36c | 38.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 37.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 39c | 36.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 36.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 44c | 33.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 76c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 32.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 74c | 29.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 42c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 17.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 66c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.