Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5393047150b66c5f1b71fae1317214d85738d896f81eb14dd9a3d9ce2d5231fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 550.59$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 460.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 385.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 311$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 275.72$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 241.87$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 190.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 189.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 181$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 159.83$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 140.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 123.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 73c | 114.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 113.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 104.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 100.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 85.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 83.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 67c | 74.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 73.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 69.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 64.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 30c | 52.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 52.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 45.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 41.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 25c | 40.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 39.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 30c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 66c | 38.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 35.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 34.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed No | 80c | 22.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.