Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0095d195b439d33a26677e993d574fc51d75a80c689fec7ae0958941dd7ff764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 50c | 1,800$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.87 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 47c | 1,199$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.18 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 894$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 824$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 464.37$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 56c | 318.77$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 283.63$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 272.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 51c | 239.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 52c | 135.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 52c | 132$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 103.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 46c | 99.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 91.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 87.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 83.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 79.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 46c | 77.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 75.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 73.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 68.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 61.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 50.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 45.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 45c | 42.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 38.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 52c | 37.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 70c | 32.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 50c | 32.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 47c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 31.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 49c | 29.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 53c | 28.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 28.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 28.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 40c | 27.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 46c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 71c | 24.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 57c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 72c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.