CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: magic vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539e2d39835ace0b53f1985904c0b4e44de40af0e33a1e9d72c8617103bddb85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- magicof magic, Tricked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked magic | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.98 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tricked | 45c | 2,067$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.24 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tricked | 30c | 1,108$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.51 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Tricked | 30c | 931.77$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed magic | 55c | 908.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.78 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Tricked | 27c | 858$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.81 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked magic | 60c | 836.54$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.03 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tricked | 45c | 768.01$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.77 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tricked | 40c | 722.02$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.1 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Tricked | 28c | 572.44$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed magic | 71c | 400.65$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed magic | 68c | 294.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed magic | 75c | 263.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Tricked | 34c | 224.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked magic | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked magic | 73c | 161.28$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed magic | 68c | 157.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Tricked | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Tricked | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Tricked | 45c | 102.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked Tricked | 21c | 96.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 36.9%69 W · 118 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed magic | 77c | 93.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Tricked | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 217 | 41.5%90 W · 127 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tricked | 28c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Tricked | 53c | 75.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Tricked | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…1f47backed Tricked | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…b942backed Tricked | 37c | 60.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Tricked | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Tricked | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -14.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Tricked | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Tricked | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked magic | 55c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Tricked | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tricked | 44c | 29.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Tricked | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Tricked | 41c | 25.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs Tricked - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: magic vs Tricked (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffsmagic won
- Counter-Strike: magic vs Tricked - Map 2 Winnermagic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.