South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53cd0e09bfd9ae13ca1a0fd34286e3570e4e4b4c4c8a73fac522b1e71f93e083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 1c | 28,333$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,933.31 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 14,448$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,214.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.97 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Over | 68c | 7,443$5,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,097.27 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 37c | 4,339$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.59 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 3,294$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.72 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 2,246$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.27 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 63c | 2,115$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.84 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 72c | 1,867$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.6 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 23c | 1,166$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.38 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 40c | 955.13$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.13 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 27c | 870.98$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.59 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 27c | 862.14$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.84 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 24c | 854.53$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.17 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 74c | 621.09$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.84 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 57c | 612.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.09 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 27c | 592.08$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.36 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 24c | 479.31$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.2 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Under | 3c | 416.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.51 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 78c | 337.2$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.82 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 58c | 330.83$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 17c | 309.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.8 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Over | 39c | 299.97$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…7a4ebacked Under | 28c | 299.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.49 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 22c | 219.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 20c | 157.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 32c | 154.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 16c | 144.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 28c | 136$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 72c | 93.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 29c | 92.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…02aebacked Under | 16c | 89.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 73c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 23c | 52.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…8bdebacked Over | 71c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed Over | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 44c | 30.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…fb78backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…b93bbacked Under | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Over | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.