TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Botafogo FRof EC Vitória, Botafogo FR
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,409 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed EC Vitória21c19,999$4,199 inLost-$4,199.495650%28 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Botafogo FR79c14,714$11,561 inWon+$3,152.628,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Botafogo FR78c12,064$9,426 inWon+$2,637.772,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed EC Vitória23c10,870$2,500 inLost-$2,499.9931349.8%156 W · 157 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Botafogo FR79c785$620 inWon+$164.856253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Botafogo FR79c453$358 inWon+$95.131,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Botafogo FR79c435.6$344 inWon+$91.4851750.7%262 W · 255 L+28.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed EC Vitória15c413.43$62 inLost-$62.112,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Botafogo FR79c412$325 inWon+$86.5257540.2%231 W · 344 L+2.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Botafogo FR79c345.15$272 inWon+$73.143,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Botafogo FR79c320$252 inWon+$68.4872058.8%423 W · 297 L+29.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed EC Vitória22c303.72$66 inLost-$65.818746%40 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Botafogo FR79c265.24$210 inWon+$55.6117951.4%92 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Botafogo FR79c239.36$189 inWon+$50.5363061.3%386 W · 244 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Botafogo FR79c236.63$188 inWon+$48.5541262.1%256 W · 156 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Botafogo FR79c225.5$177 inWon+$48.3119349.2%95 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Botafogo FR79c168.58$134 inWon+$34.6516449.4%81 W · 83 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Botafogo FR79c161.04$127 inWon+$33.8295155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Botafogo FR79c161.02$128 inWon+$33.160156.2%338 W · 263 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x579a…b0a7backed EC Vitória31c112.9$35 inLost-$3520934%71 W · 138 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Botafogo FR79c110.99$88 inWon+$23.3142962.2%267 W · 162 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Botafogo FR79c73.56$58 inWon+$15.45771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Botafogo FR79c68.9$54 inWon+$14.7314264.1%91 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Botafogo FR79c64.34$51 inWon+$13.518851.1%45 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Botafogo FR79c63.29$50 inWon+$13.2913167.9%89 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Botafogo FR80c62.5$50 inWon+$12.53467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Botafogo FR80c60$48 inWon+$12.310352.4%54 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Botafogo FR79c58$46 inWon+$12.182,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked EC Vitória35c57.2$20 inLost-$20.024143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Botafogo FR80c52.66$42 inWon+$10.633365.5%218 W · 115 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Botafogo FR79c48.61$39 inWon+$10.063,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed Botafogo FR79c47.56$38 inWon+$9.9916751.5%86 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Botafogo FR79c40$32 inWon+$8.414563.4%92 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Botafogo FR79c35.91$28 inWon+$7.5416459.8%98 W · 66 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Botafogo FR79c31.65$25 inWon+$6.6515057.3%86 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Botafogo FR80c22.35$18 inWon+$4.5811155%61 W · 50 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Botafogo FR77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.484456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.