South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad310b0cbb037c98db37753ab08a606988550721eb6c5fb303b2d5e4c262bbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Over | 20c | 6,160$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.87 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 53c | 3,746$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.8 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 3,269$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 3,188$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.4 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 47c | 2,805$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.41 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 2,642$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.29 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 1,781$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.91 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 51c | 1,415$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.05 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 1,275$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.73 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 1,161$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.89 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 853.06$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.2 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 54c | 837.77$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Over | 58c | 823.88$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.85 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 569.18$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.51 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 77c | 479.19$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 47c | 404$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.88 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 399.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 54c | 375.13$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 292.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.47 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 30c | 285.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 46c | 271$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 47c | 226.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 25c | 190.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 129.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 128.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 47c | 121.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 72c | 111.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…1f5cbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…7a4ebacked Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 95.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 80.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 68c | 73.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Over | 48c | 57.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 68c | 53.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 74c | 47.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 59c | 47.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 42c | 46.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 54c | 45.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 38c | 40.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 69c | 37.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Over | 46c | 35.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 74c | 29.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 70c | 23.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 52c | 21.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Over | 74c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…eb9dbacked Under | 68c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.