MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e04ff39b870ba1de83049c1f76ce5e8ee8c8a15ec07c91033650ee44381a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Atlanta Braves, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 22,779$13,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,339.49 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 15,000$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,150 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 4,189$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.49 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 3,943$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.49 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 2,222$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.58 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.09 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 1,149$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Atlanta Braves | 3c | 1,029$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 777.87$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.83 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 702.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…1088backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 695.12$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 598$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 468.43$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 427.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 399.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 304.81$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 240.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 235.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 179.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 166.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Atlanta Braves | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Atlanta Braves | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Atlanta Braves | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 106.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 103.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Atlanta Braves | 16c | 102.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 81.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 79.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 67.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…adaebacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 589 | 43.1%254 W · 335 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 25.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.