MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb0b0105287ac00dbd9a099ad6535cc7771fce866508c99cfe1b20f3b35b935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 49,804$26,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,839.41 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 46c | 27,098$12,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,465 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 46c | 23,920$11,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,003.2 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 46c | 11,040$5,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,078.4 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 8,261$4,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.15 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 2,054$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 780$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 515.19$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 500$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 53c | 329.07$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 304.66$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 302.3$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.14 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18d5…2bb6backed Over | 46c | 271.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 53c | 205.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 55c | 175.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…0469backed Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 55c | 146.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 145.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 46c | 121.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 119.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…14c4backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 46c | 104.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 102.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…cf05backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Over | 61c | 96.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 70.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 35c | 69.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 63.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 48.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1f72backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Over | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…3100backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 54c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…e01fbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8a76backed Over | 46c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Over | 45c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesKansas City Royals won
- NRFI: Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.