MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546135d2084d943ecfa5caba4d743576aac7f7c5132d9b145d11a733924d710b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 2,971$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.38 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 2,636$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 2,218$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.59 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 1,506$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 1,350$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.5 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 53c | 1,196$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.82 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 47c | 1,037$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.15 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 849.89$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 768.26$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.86 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 736.34$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.63 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 380$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 46c | 366.55$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 222.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 56c | 209.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 145.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Under | 53c | 91.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…3f8dbacked Over | 48c | 78.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Under | 53c | 75.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…adedbacked Under | 53c | 70.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 50.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 44.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 42.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 42.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 54c | 37.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 36.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Over | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 53c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Over | 47c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.