MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc985d7f168b1b9158fd153ec9487a5e33828d3458db5f19d4ecad1a1f8aac8fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 2,947$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 2,875$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 1,421$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.6 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 482.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.91 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 397.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 344.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 14c | 342.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 287.86$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 269.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 247.13$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 172$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 164.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 163.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 146.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 137.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 129.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 90.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 89.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 68.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 62.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 60.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 56.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 56.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 51.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 44.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 37.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 27.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 21.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.