TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Newport: Mackenzie McDonald vs Adam Walton

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Adam Waltonof Mackenzie McDonald, Adam Walton
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32b4…8b21backed Mackenzie McDonald22c6,216$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.233,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9461…6be0backed Adam Walton76c3,816$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.798246.3%38 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540e…263dbacked Mackenzie McDonald19c2,443$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.479924.2%24 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Adam Walton76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7994968.1%646 W · 303 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Adam Walton76c1,278$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.473,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mackenzie McDonald4c1,253$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.198,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…b59cbacked Mackenzie McDonald5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010821.3%23 W · 85 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Adam Walton51c565.46$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.083,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa102…6b5bbacked Mackenzie McDonald49c555$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.957650%38 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ada…91ebbacked Adam Walton52c534.19$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mackenzie McDonald14c304$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.66,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Mackenzie McDonald48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Mackenzie McDonald7c289.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.316,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Mackenzie McDonald4c250.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.665,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Adam Walton52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12092953.5%497 W · 432 L-4.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Mackenzie McDonald37c240.35$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.931,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Adam Walton77c238$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.311,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Mackenzie McDonald15c197.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.722033.6%74 W · 146 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mackenzie McDonald46c185.19$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.197,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Adam Walton54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,19852.4%628 W · 570 L+28.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cdf…ec9ebacked Mackenzie McDonald49c183.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9018357.9%106 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Mackenzie McDonald48c162.31$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.911,70248.3%822 W · 880 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Mackenzie McDonald16c156.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.391,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…819bbacked Adam Walton51c124.87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.194951%25 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x831f…cc50backed Mackenzie McDonald20c123.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7521841.3%90 W · 128 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Mackenzie McDonald15c123.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.512,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Mackenzie McDonald48c109.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.627,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mackenzie McDonald15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Adam Walton52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1527437.2%102 W · 172 L-21.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Mackenzie McDonald25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.332726.9%88 W · 239 L-43.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Adam Walton68c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6531053.5%166 W · 144 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed2d…faeebacked Mackenzie McDonald18c66.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x285f…0f08backed Mackenzie McDonald32c66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.918537.3%69 W · 116 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Mackenzie McDonald46c49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3539851%203 W · 195 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Adam Walton51c48.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f06…8ebebacked Adam Walton52c47.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6520553.7%110 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Mackenzie McDonald25c44.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Adam Walton65c37.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Adam Walton58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72,52836.2%914 W · 1,614 L-26.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Mackenzie McDonald49c33.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3221554%116 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Mackenzie McDonald48c23.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.171,58042.3%668 W · 912 L+18.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…bcb7backed Mackenzie McDonald50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.