WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5469076fbf1dcf650045cbbb49e23af6796f2a99519b7ec862c1839430280d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Washington Mystics, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed PortlandFire | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 18,584$9,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,292.05 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 6,666$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 6,126$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 4,083$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.67 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed PortlandFire | 51c | 4,080$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.2 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed PortlandFire | 51c | 2,830$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.7 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 2,519$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.42 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed PortlandFire | 51c | 2,400$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 1,173$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.55 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked PortlandFire | 50c | 699.56$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.78 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 650$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed PortlandFire | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked PortlandFire | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 216.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 212$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed PortlandFire | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 50c | 149.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed PortlandFire | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed PortlandFire | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…8229backed PortlandFire | 51c | 67.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 62.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Washington Mystics | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 49c | 55.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed PortlandFire | 75c | 29.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed PortlandFire | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked PortlandFire | 50c | 24.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Washington MysticsPortlandFire won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 162.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 163.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.