Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Hoffenheim beat Lyon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54881cdad3f4d8e38299451b1c5bc835ff635ce391ecad2b52454d57aa892c8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 45c | 4,712$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.41 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 35c | 3,110$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.32 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 65c | 3,040$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.39 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 55c | 2,014$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.99 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 55c | 2,008$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.71 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 55c | 1,955$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 62c | 1,045$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.15 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…56aabacked Yes | 45c | 668.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 48c | 449.74$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.87 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 64c | 281.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 58c | 231.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 60c | 223.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 45c | 144.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 57c | 144.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…34b5backed Yes | 42c | 126.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…480abacked Yes | 50c | 106.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…c7fbbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…a9b3backed Yes | 42c | 79.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…68e6backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…7f2abacked Yes | 42c | 24.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hoffenheim beat Lyon?this page
- Will Lyon beat Hoffenheim?No won
- Will the match between Hoffenheim and Lyon end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.