Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon beat Hoffenheim?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad1a2415c46bd1e32c1f6bd82dc92831aae50f7ab85241921f14b824759f2d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 62c | 3,674$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.96 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Yes | 35c | 1,671$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 32c | 721.05$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.85 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 55c | 509.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 57c | 410.32$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ac…e537backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 45c | 180.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…2574backed Yes | 43c | 162.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…40e9backed Yes | 36c | 118$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9347backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…a7cfbacked Yes | 43c | 90.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…5aedbacked Yes | 31c | 87.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 35c | 84.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…3c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 81.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 35c | 65.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +290.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Yes | 39c | 44.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…3d6ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f397backed Yes | 33c | 36.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54de…6dabbacked Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…14c8backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147e…aee4backed Yes | 43c | 32.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…14dbbacked Yes | 43c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…3e62backed No | 68c | 25.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon beat Hoffenheim?this page
- Will Hoffenheim beat Lyon?No won
- Will the match between Hoffenheim and Lyon end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.