Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54a6bef2081ba2f90ea5e54887c305918ac2222dfbc9ae59d418e64cdc371a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 1,046$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.92 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 341.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 294.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 16c | 258$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 32c | 248.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 242.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 29c | 212.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 184.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 19c | 180.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 179.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 162.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 154.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 50c | 154$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 147$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 65c | 124.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 124.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 115$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…58b7backed Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe1…56c4backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 87.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 12c | 86.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 15c | 83.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 42c | 68.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 42c | 63.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 62.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 59.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…2e68backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 45.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 46c | 41.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 53c | 39.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 52c | 38.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 37.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 51c | 35.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 51c | 35.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 51c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 46c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 26.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 51c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 67c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 48c | 22.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 61c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.