Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e96e67cee927cbd0b113b5ad7beecb07d2e749db844cf13db2413da0eb8b6f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,781 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x921c…1621backed No | 1c | 5,930$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 30c | 661.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.58 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 459.12$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 23c | 435.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 27c | 396.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 333.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 78c | 318.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 300.04$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 31c | 282$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 269.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.87 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 236.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 236.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 22c | 201.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 197.52$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 196.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 11c | 195.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 180.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 39c | 155.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 145.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 26c | 132.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 128.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 126.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8f98backed No | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 113.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 42c | 108.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 53c | 108.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 104.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 24c | 102.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 74c | 101.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 93.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 23c | 87.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 38c | 86.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 17c | 86.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 75c | 84.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 83.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 19c | 77.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 75.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 74.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 24c | 74.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 70c | 72.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 36c | 72.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 68.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 63.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 34c | 58.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 58.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 73c | 49.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 31c | 44.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 38.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 75c | 38.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 37.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 32.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 56c | 32.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 52c | 25.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 18.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 17.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.